Current predictors used in the selection system for Casting Operators

Part 2 – Predictor Choice

Casting Operators are currently selected using an application review and an unstructured interview.  (Please refer to Part 1 for detailed descriptions of each of these predictors).

Suppose that you are asked to conduct a criterion-related validity study to see how valid the unstructured interview is in predicting Job Performance/Work Quality, as well as the other criteria of Safety, Absenteeism and Turnover.  Note:  IDI will need to continue the application review to make sure that applicants meet minimum qualifications for the job.

As we discussed in class, you first need to establish reliability of a predictor before examining validity.  Assume that you calculate the reliability of the unstructured interview. Your results are below:


Test-RetestInternal ConsistencyInter-rater
Unstructured Interviewn/an/a55%

Next, you conduct a criterion-related validity study to see the extent to which the unstructured interview predicts the outcomes important to the organization.  The organization, as mentioned previously, has limited criterion data. But you are able to use data on quality and performance from archival records, as well as the number of recordable cases (OSHA logs), absenteeism, and turnover data.  Using these criteria, you find the following validity coefficients:


Job Performance/Work QualitySafety (Number of Recordable Cases)AbsenteeismTurnover
Unstructured Interviewrxy=.07, p=.45rxy=-.15, p=<.05rxy=-.11, p=.37rxy=-.20, p<.05

New predictors to be considered for Casting Operator selection: 

IDI Mobile is interested in improving employee selection and is considering the use of new predictors.  Some of these predictors (general personality test, numerical ability test, verbal ability test, physical ability test) are available through third parties (consultants).  The consultants are able to generalize the validity of these predictors to the IDI Casting Operator job.  Other predictors (conscientiousness personality test, job knowledge test) have already been tested in the IDI company. IDI also created a work sample test for Casting Operator and needs to determine the validity of the work sample in predicting criteria. 

The table below shows the validity evidence for the general personality test, numerical ability test, verbal ability test, and physical ability test from XYZ Consulting firm.  These validity coefficients can be generalized to the IDI job; the manufacturing jobs on which these estimates are based are substantially similar to the Casting Operator job at IDI.  Please assume that reliability for these predictors meets or exceeds suggested levels. 


Job Performance/Work QualitySafety (Number of Recordable Cases)AbsenteeismTurnover
General Personality Testrxy=25, p<.05rxy=-.38, p<.01rxy=-.22, p<.05rxy=-.18, p<.05
Numerical Ability Testrxy=.41, p<.01rxy=-.11, p=.21rxy=-.11, p=.37rxy=-.13, p=.20
Verbal Ability Testrxy=.32, p<.05rxy=-.19, p<.05rxy=-.01, p=.37rxy=-.06, p<.07
Physical Ability Testrxy=.29, p<.01rxy=-.08, p<.10rxy=-.19, p<.05rxy=-.21, p<.01

The next table demonstrates the validity evidence for the conscientiousness personality test and the job knowledge test.  These tests were developed by the corporate IDI Human Resources department with the assistance of external consultants.  Their validity coefficients were obtained through the use of a concurrent criterion-related validation study conducted over time with operators within IDI (multiple facilities).  Please assume that reliability for these predictors meets or exceeds suggested levels. 


Job Performance/Work QualitySafety (Number of Recordable Cases)AbsenteeismTurnover
Conscientiousness Personality Testrxy=.34, p<.01rxy=-.33, p<.01rxy=-.30, p<.05rxy=-.31, p<.05
Job Knowledge Testrxy=.40, p<.01rxy=-.15, p<.05rxy=-.18, p<.05rxy=-.17, p<.10

As previously mentioned, IDI created a work sample. Data have been collected over time from current operators across IDI facilities.  Please see the Excel spreadsheet “Casting Work Sample Validation Study Data” to see the data collected during this concurrent criterion-related validation study.  We need to examine if the work sample has adequate reliability and validity to be used as a selection tool for selecting future Casting Operators.   

Part 2 Project Questions (25 points)

Please answer each question by number.  Use complete sentences and show all work.  Be sure to fully support/justify your responses.  I encourage you to use outside sources for this project; however, you must cite these outside sources using MLA, APA, or other accepted style. Please note that all work must be completed independently; do not work on this case together.

  1. Discuss whether the reliability estimate for the current predictor  – the unstructured interview – meets minimum acceptable requirements (see page 1) and describe in layperson’s terms what the reliability estimate is suggesting. 
  2. Discuss which outcomes the unstructured interview predicts based on statistical significance.  For the statistically significant outcomes, discuss whether the results are practically significant (how strong are the relationships).
  1. Calculate the test-retest reliability of the work sample (using data from “Casting Work Sample Validation Study Data”) and indicate whether or not it meets the appropriate level of reliability for use as a selection tool. 
  1. Calculate the validity coefficients for the work sample (at time 1) and each of the criteria and note your results in the table below.  I have indicated whether or not the validity coefficient is statistically significant; for those that are statistically significant, discuss which are practically significant. Note:  No employees left the organization during the validation period; therefore, turnover statistics cannot be determined.

Job Performance/Work QualitySafety (Number of Recordable Cases)AbsenteeismTurnover
Revised Work Samplerxy= _____, p<.01rxy= _____, p=.31rxy= _____, p=.06N/A
  1. Review the job description and the reliability and validity information above.  Assume, due to budget constraints, that you can choose only 3 predictors for selecting Casting Operators.  Which 3 will you choose and why?  Note:  You may consider the original predictor (unstructured interview) as well as the proposed predictors (general personality test, numerical ability test, verbal ability test, physical ability test, conscientiousness personality test, job knowledge test, work sample), but please assume that the application review will be continued; do not consider the application review as one of the 3 predictors you choose. Also, you may assume that the predictors are not substantially correlated with each other. 

Answer 1

There are two elements of this reliability estimate that needs to be considered. The correlation for Job performance is quite low but the element that is raising alarms there is the p value that is 5% meaning the level of confidence. Safety and Turnover has a considerable size of the correlation coefficient, which is 15% and 20% respectively. In both of the above cases it can be observed that safety and Turnover is significant to enable reliable results. In these cases confidence is more that 95%. In absenteeism, it can be observed that the size of impact coefficient has a considerable value of 11% but the p value is 37%, which can be denoted as insufficient measure. This also means that the confidence of the above correlation coefficient is 63%, which is far below the required level of 95% that is observed as an essential element in all social sciences.

Answer 2

In discussing the statistical impact of unstructured interview and ignoring its significance because it would not provide reliable information about the candidate. It can be seen that unstructured interview has the weakest relationship with Job Performance, which is denoted by only 7%. The relationship in this regard is with turnover, this relation is known to be 20%. This figure indicates the strong and cam be forecasted in terms of turnover by this predictor. Safety has the second strongest relationship and the third strongest relationship is of Absenteeism, which are 15% and 11% respectively.

Answer 3

The correlation coefficient in this case is 0.95 or 95%. This indicates that the test reliability is quite strong and meets the minimum reliability standards this also indicates that when an employee’s scores high in the first case, he would probably score high in the second. This case also applies on the low and medium scorers.

Answer 4


Job Performance/Work QualitySafety (Number of Recordable Cases)AbsenteeismTurnover
Revised Work Samplerxy= 0.67, p<.01rxy= 0.03, p=.31rxy= -.26, p=.06N/A

This determines that the results of safety are insignificant due to its high P value. The results of absenteeism are not statistically significant and the results are utilized for evaluating the job performances. There were no turnovers so results of turnover cannot be studied. It can be closely studied that job performance has the strongest bond with work scores where higher scores would mean higher productivity level of employees and the relationship is positive, denoting that with the increase in one there is a rise in the other. The relationship with absenteeism is negative and depicts that work samples are negatively associated with absenteeism having minimum effect on the productivity of workers.

Question 5

Due to budget constraint, the three casting operators that I would choose among tests such as General Personality, Conscientiousness Personality and Physical Ability Test. Both the personality tests depict strong relationships between job performances and productivity where more than 18% predictors are in its favor. These two predictors are weaker in terms of Turnover, there the role of Physical ability test. This test not only covers the weaknesses of personality tests but also predicts 3 highly reliable elements of the distribution which includes physical abilities, general personality and consciousness of a worker.

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